Analysis: Xi Jinping's ambition to unify Taiwan motivates military purges
As the island votes for its next president, Beijing prepares to apply more pressure
As Taiwan's upcoming presidential election gives China an excuse to flex its military muscle, that military, especially its rocket and missile division, has been cast in the international spotlight.
On Tuesday afternoon, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense issued an emergency alert informing residents that a rocket was launched by China and had flown over the island's southern region. Alarm sounds blared across Taiwan, and residents received emergency notifications on their phones.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was making a campaign stop in the southern city of Kaohsiung just as the alerts went out. She responded quickly, reassuring Taiwanese that the payload was a satellite. She also called the launch a "gray" activity and said Taiwan must not waver from its democratic stance.
It seems more than a mere coincidence that the launch came days after a widely read Bloomberg report suggesting corruption within the Chinese military is so serious that President Xi Jinping is "less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case."
The Bloomberg report sheds light on issues like missiles being filled with water rather than fuel and silos that might not allow missiles to be launched effectively.
Incidentally, the rocket that flew over Taiwan blasted off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in China's Sichuan Province, where the recently dismissed Defense Minister Li Shangfu once served as center director.
The Bloomberg report also says Li's sudden dismissal, part of Xi's sweeping military purge, was in response to the widespread corruption.
Li's removal has been the eye of a storm of purges currently raging within China's military. Li had long experience in the military's rocket and strategic missile division and other equipment-related units.
Furthermore, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on Dec. 29 expelled nine senior military officials from parliament, five of whom were current or former officers of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, including former commander Li Yuchao.
There is no doubt that the rocket force, which oversees China's nuclear and missile arsenals, is the most important military asset China can wield in pressuring Taiwan. But a senior officer of that force died last summer after being placed under investigation by China's graft busters. He is believed to have committed suicide.
Recent developments involving the PLA show that the sweeping military reforms Xi has pushed over the past seven to eight years have not had their intended effect.
The reform drive included the reorganization of China's seven military regions into five theater commands. The PLA has several branches, including an army, navy and air force, as well as the rocket force. Amid the reorganization, cross-branch personnel transfers were conducted, but military personnel on the ground likely felt some resistance regarding the unprecedented changes.
As Bloomberg suggests, a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan would appear to be extremely difficult at this point.
But is that really what is driving Xi's military purge? Here is a look at the issue from a slightly different angle -- and long-term point of view.
An expert familiar with China's foreign and security policies said the military purges are motivated by something more "complicated" than corruption. "It's about a more serious "political issue" that affects the chain of command," the expert said. "The purges were going to extend beyond Li Shangfu to other high-ranking military officials including those retired."
The purges might affect tense U.S.-China relations and how China will pressure Taiwan after the presidential election on Saturday.
Xi intends to be given another term as China's top leader at the Chinese Communist Party's 21st National Congress in 2027 but is currently facing a difficult challenge: the party's big goal of unifying Taiwan.
If party members feel the goal has become more difficult during Xi's rule, which in 2027 will have spanned 15 years, his efforts to maintain his authority will have suffered a serious setback.
That is something Xi wants to avoid at any cost.
The president wants to secure all available military options toward Taiwan, ranging from military pressure to military action. To that end, preparations must be completed so that China's military will carry out Xi's will.
These preparations are already past the initial stages.
That the first has been completed was demonstrated after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in the summer of 2022.
The Chinese military set up six exercise zones around Taiwan and fired missiles into the zones from the mainland. The move was made to demonstrate the ability to blockade Taiwan.
Some of the Chinese missiles fell within Japan's exclusive economic zone, which was a first.
The second step was taken while Taiwanese President Tsai was visiting the U.S. in the spring of 2023. China responded by deploying the Shandong aircraft carrier in the western Pacific, east of Taiwan, showing that China can project military power into the Pacific with an eye on the U.S. Navy.
But China is finding it difficult to move to the final stage.
Xi has solidified his position as China's unrivaled leader to the extent that once he makes a major decision, none of the other six members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's top decision-making body, will strongly object.
But whether China's military can actually move quickly and effectively on the orders of Xi -- who also serves as chairman of the Central Military Commission, which supervises the PLA -- is another story.
This is exactly why Xi's closest aides are now making various preparations for the possible future use of military force.
Their top priority is to ensure the military's chain of command, with Xi at the very top, will work flawlessly.
In other words, the current storm of military purges can be interpreted as an attempt to wipe out "resistance forces," as one Chinese pundit put it. There is more to it than corruption scandals involving missiles filled with water.
China and Taiwan have a history of armed clashes. In 1958, a battle broke out, with the Chinese military on the mainland firing artillery shells at the remote Taiwanese island of Kinmen.
While the battle ended a month and a half later, China's shelling of the island continued intermittently until 1979. Older Kinmen residents have vivid memories of the bombardments.
Taiwan's presidential election is a three-way race between Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party.
"Whoever wins Saturday's poll will not get close to the Xi administration rapidly, given public opinion," a Taiwan pundit said, echoing a view shared by many observers on the island.
China, which does not rule out the use of force in its quest for unification, and Taiwan, where democracy has taken hold, have grown more distant politically.
This is also born out by the fact that none of Saturday's candidates are waishengren -- people who fled to Taiwan from mainland China after World War II. All three have strong feelings for their homeland, the pundit said. He added, "The structure of the presidential election is completely different from past ones."
All this adds up to why China feels it cannot renounce military means to achieve its goal, and sending a rocket over Taiwan four days before voting day could have been meant as a reminder of Beijing's intentions.
In any case, China's various pressure tactics will go into full swing after the election results become clear.
The next important event will be the new Taiwanese president's inauguration speech on May 20. Regardless of who delivers it, how China-Taiwan relations are referred to will be important. Xi will be paying close attention and is likely preparing a range of responses already.